Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
type: channel
description: The Yearbook features peer-reviewed research articles addressing population trends as well as a broad range of theoretical and methodological issues in population research. Call for Papers 25.11.2024 The Vienna Yearbook of Population Research is seeking submissions for a Special Issue Delayed Reproduction: Patterns, Challenges and Prospects Guest Editors: Éva Beaujouan, Marie-Caroline Compans, Alice Goisis, and Jasmin Passet-Wittig This special issue invites original unpublished contributions on the topic of population inequality. Empirical and theoretical papers as well as papers studying geographic and spatial differences are welcome. We welcome different types of submissions including Research articles, Review articles, Perspectives and shorter Data & Trends contributions. All submissions will be subject to external double-blind peer review. Manuscript submission (full papers only) is now open until 31 May 2025 READ MORE >
publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
language: en
publication name: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
issn: 1728-4414
copyright: The Author guarantees that the submitted paper and all supplementary materials (hereinafter called Contribution) is an original work that has been written by the stated authors, has not been published before, has not been and will not be submitted for review to another journal while under review by the Vienna Yearbook of Population Research and that the Contribution does not infringe on any copyright, trademark, patent, statutory rights or proprietary rights of others; and that he/she will indemnify the Austrian Academy of Sciences (Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften, hereafter called OEAW) against any costs, expenses or damages for which it may become liable as a result of any breach of this warranty. The Author retains copyright regarding the Contribution above, but agrees to indicate that the Contribution was first published in the Vienna Yearbook of Population Research and to give a bibliographic reference to the publication in any new reprint. The Author irrevocably grants the following non-exclusive rights to OEAW in perpetuity: the right to print, publish, distribute, grant licenses and sell throughout the world said Contribution and parts thereof in all forms and media of expression – such as in its electronic form (offline, online) – now known or developed in the future, as well as to translate, print, publish, distribute, grant licenses and sell the Contribution in any foreign languages and throughout the world, and to store it in databases of any kind. In addition, OEAW is entitled to edit or modify the Contribution in any way, OEAW shall not edit, translate or modify the work in such a way that the intellectual interests of the Author are seriously impaired. The Contribution is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0) that allows the sharing, use and adaptation of the Contribution in any medium or format provided that the user gives appropriate credit, provides a link to the license, indicates if changes were…
items: Why did care home residents face an elevated risk of death from COVID-19? A demographic perspective using data from Belgium and from England and Wales
items: Comparing the loss of life expectancy at birth during the 2020 and 1918 pandemics in six European countries
items: Aspects of a sociology of the pandemic: Inequalities and the life course
items: Pregnancies and contraceptive use in four African countries during the COVID-19 pandemic
items: Exploring psychological vulnerability and responses to the COVID-19 lockdown in Greece
items: Cognitive schemas and fertility motivations in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic
items: Regional Covid-19 Mortality in Brazil by age
items: Rapid changes in birth counts in Brazilian major cities during the COVID-19 pandemic
items: COVID-19 and relationship quality: Emotional, paid work and organizational spheres.
items: Excess mortality and COVID-19 in Sweden in 2020: A demographic account
items: Narratives of the future and fertility decision-making in uncertain times. An application to the COVID-19 pandemic
items: https://www.vypr.vlg.oeaw.ac.at/index.php/vypr/article/view/233
items: Are homicides and robberies associated with mortality due to COVID-19? Lessons from Urban Mexico
items: COVID-19 in Hong Kong: Policies and community actions mitigate the effects of age structure and population density
items: The mathematics of the reproduction number R for Covid-19: A primer for demographers
items: Marital fertility decline and death of children in the Sardinian longevity Blue Zone
items: Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women's educational and migrant characteristics
items: Laggards in the global fertility transition
items: Future Orientation and Fertility: Cross-national Evidence using Google Search
items: Decomposing changes in first birth trends: Quantum, timing, or variance
items: What factors support the early age patterns of fertility in a developing country: the case of Kyrgyzstan
items: Assessing excess mortality in Vienna and Austria after the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic
items: Assessing the generational impact of COVID-19 using National Transfer Accounts (NTAs)
items: Understanding Women’s Well-being in Turkey: Determinants of Women’s Satisfaction with Life
items: Years of Good Life: An illustration of a new well-being indicator using data for Thailand
items: Is educational wellbeing associated with grade repetition and school dropout rates among Indian students? Evidence from a panel study
items: Effects of income inequality on COVID-19 infections and deaths during the first wave of the pandemic: Evidence from European countries
items: Mortality Evolution in Algeria: What we can learn about data quality
items: Singles in the City: Happily ever after?
items: Fathers’ and mothers’ subjective wellbeing in childcare time: the role of multitasking

Why did care home residents face an elevated risk of death from COVID-19? A demographic perspective using data from Belgium and from England and Wales
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description: In many countries, deaths from COVID-19 were highly concentrated among care home residents during the initial wave of the pandemic. Care home residents may have faced higher risks of exposure and infection than the general population of older people. Once infected, residents may have been more likely to succumb to this disease as they were both older and frailer than the general population of older people. This study presents a quantified assessment of these factors in Belgium and in England and Wales. In doing so, this paper applies the Das Gupta decomposition method to explain the contributions of these three factors to the observed differences in mortality rates from COVID-19 between older people residing in care homes and older people living at home. According to these estimates, older people residing in care homes were 36 times more likely to die in Belgium and were 23 times more likely to die in England and Wales from COVID-19 than older people living at home during the initial wave of the pandemic. Decomposition of the differences in the mortality rates of these populations in Belgium and in England and Wales showed that the two key determinants were the greater underlying frailty of older people in care homes (accounting for 46% of the differences in Belgium and 66% of the differences in England and Wales) and the higher infection prevalence of older people in care homes (accounting for 40% of the differences in Belgium and 26% of the differences in England and Wales).
subject: Data & Trends
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creator: Mun Sim Lai
rights: Copyright (c) 2023 Mun Sim Lai https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2022-07-19
publication date: 2022-07-19
starting page: 499
ending page: 526

Comparing the loss of life expectancy at birth during the 2020 and 1918 pandemics in six European countries
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description: The COVID-19 pandemic that reached Europe in 2020 has often been compared to the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. In this article, we compare the two pandemics in terms of their respective impacts on the loss of life expectancy at birth in six European countries (France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland) by estimating life expectancy in 2020 using Eurostat data. We found that the loss of life expectancy at birth was up to 20 times larger between 1917 and 1918 than between 2019 and 2020. A decomposition of these losses clearly shows that in all six countries, the main contributors were older age groups in 2020 and younger age groups in 1918. These observations are consistent with evidence indicating that most COVID-19 fatalities were among the elderly, while a majority of Spanish flu fatalities were among the young.
subject: Data & Trends
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creator: Valentin Rousson
creator: Fred Paccaud
creator: Isabella Locatelli
rights: Copyright (c) 2022 Valentin Rousson, Fred Paccaud, Isabella Locatelli https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2022-08-18
publication date: 2022-08-18
starting page: 527
ending page: 542

Aspects of a sociology of the pandemic: Inequalities and the life course
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description: Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, the contributions of the social sciences to discussions about pandemic management have become more visible and more significant. In this essay, I review major aspects of a sociology of the pandemic. After providing an overview of the potential contributions of the different fields of sociology (the “toolbox” of sociology), I discuss two main domains: first, social inequalities and how they relate to the process of the spread of COVID-19 from exposure and infection, and to the consequences of the pandemic in the wider population; and, second, the potential long-term effects of the pandemic on the life course.
subject: Perspectives
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creator: Karl Ulrich Mayer
rights: Copyright (c) 2022 Karl Ulrich Mayer https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2022-07-28
publication date: 2022-07-28
starting page: 15
ending page: 37

Pregnancies and contraceptive use in four African countries during the COVID-19 pandemic
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description: The COVID-19 pandemic and the public health measures adopted in response to it have triggered plenty of speculation about the potential impact on fertility in different regions of the globe. This study provides evidence on the fertility response in four sub-Saharan African countries during the first year of the pandemic. Using harmonized data on women of childbearing age from the Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) data series, this study compares pregnancy rates at the turn of the year 2020/21 to a pre-pandemic baseline. There is no indication of a general increase in pregnancy rates after the beginning of the pandemic. In some of the sample countries, pregnancy rates during this phase of the COVID-19 pandemic instead fell significantly among the youngest and the least educated women of childbearing age, respectively. The findings also indicate that over this period, rates of modern contraceptive usage rose significantly among the surveyed female populations in several sample countries.
subject: Data & Trends
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creator: Andreas Backhaus
rights: Copyright (c) 2022 Andreas Backhaus https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2022-07-19
publication date: 2022-07-19
starting page: 459
ending page: 476

Exploring psychological vulnerability and responses to the COVID-19 lockdown in Greece
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description: This study explores the psychosocial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the population in Greece during the general lockdown period. Specifically, depression, anxiety and stress scores, as well as the factors associated with vulnerability to developing mental health conditions during this period, were investigated. A total of 911 adults participated in an online survey by completing a self-reporting questionnaire that included demographic questions, DASS-42 items (anxiety, stress and depression scales) and other questions related to personal experience. Regression modelling uncovered a significant relationship between gender and DASS scores,with women having significantly higher scores than men for all mental health problems. Participants aged 20–39 years were especially vulnerable to experiencing poor mental health. Unemployed participants reported having worse mental health than others. Having more perceived psychosocial support during the pandemic was associated with lower overall scores. Thus, women, young adults and the unemployed exhibited particularly high levels of vulnerability, while individuals who received social support from relatives and friends during the lockdown were more resilient to the effects of social isolation.
subject: Data & Trends
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creator: Polyxeni Sardi
creator: Anastasia Kostaki
rights: Copyright (c) 2022 ANASTASIA KOSTAKI https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2022-07-28
publication date: 2022-07-28
starting page: 477
ending page: 498

Cognitive schemas and fertility motivations in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic
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description: While current evidence indicates that the United States did not experience a baby boom during the pandemic, few empirical studies have considered the underlying rationale for the American baby bust. Relying on data collected during the pandemic (n = 574), we find that pandemic-related subjective assessments (e.g., self-reported stress, fear of COVID-19 and relationship struggles) and not economic indicators (e.g., employment status, income level) were related to levels of fertility motivations among individuals in relationships. Analysis of within-person changes in fertility motivations shows that shifts in the number of children, increases in mental health issues and increases in relationship uncertainty, rather than changes in economic circumstances, were associated with short-term assessments of the importance of avoiding a pregnancy. We argue for broadening conceptual frameworks of fertility motivations by moving beyond a focus on economic factors to include a cognitive schema that takes subjective concerns into account.
subject: Research Articles
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creator: Wendy Manning
creator: Karen Guzzo
creator: Monica Longmore
creator: Peggy Giordano
rights: Copyright (c) 2022 Wendy Manning, Karen Guzzo, Monica Longmore, Peggy Giordano https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2022-04-12
publication date: 2022-04-12
starting page: 261
ending page: 284

Regional Covid-19 Mortality in Brazil by age
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description: In this study, we use ternary color-coding to visualize and compare the age structure of deaths from COVID-19 in Brazilian meso-regions using the tricolore package in R, in two different phases of the pandemic. The analysis of the age profile is important to better understand the dynamics of the pandemic, and how it has affected the population over age 25, according to age groups (25–59, 60–79 and >80 years) and subpopulations of the country. The analysis focuses on the first wave of the pandemic, until the end of 2020, and the more recent wave. Overall, the results suggest that when the two recent waves of the pandemic are compared, different spatial patterns in the distribution of deaths across the country by sex and by age emerge. While the distribution of deaths is found to be concentrated at older ages, we also observe in the more recent period some areas of the country with a concentration of deaths among younger adults. The analysis further indicates that even in areas with a younger population age structure, which could act as a protective factor against complications, the age pattern of mortality is very heterogeneous, and we do not find a clearly defined age and spatial pattern. Our results highlight the importance of looking at the distribution of COVID-19 mortality across small areas, and show that there are many different levels of the pandemic in Brazil at the same time, rather than just one.
subject: Research Articles
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creator: Emerson Augusto Baptista
creator: Bernardo Lanza Queiroz
creator: Everton Emanuel Campos de Lima
rights: Copyright (c) 2022 Emerson Augusto Baptista, Bernardo Lanza Queiroz, Everton Emanuel Campos de Lima https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2022-03-16
publication date: 2022-03-16
starting page: 349
ending page: 365

Rapid changes in birth counts in Brazilian major cities during the COVID-19 pandemic
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description: Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, Brazil has been among the countries that have been heavily a ected by this novel disease. From March 2020 onwards, records of deaths in Brazil increased as the number of COVID-19 infections skyrocketed. Consequently, many studies have tried to explain how this illness has a ected the overall number of deaths since the start of the pandemic, and have examined the question of whether mortality related to COVID-19 has led to reductions in life expectancy. However, at the time of writing, there have been few empirical analyses of the e ects of the pandemic on births. In this study, we sought to investigate whether the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the recent birth counts of six large cities in Brazil by assessing the most up-to-date vital statistics data that are available. Using data from the municipal health departments of these cities, we compared the number of monthly births from October–December 2020 and January–March 2021 with the number of new-borns in similar months and years before the pandemic. Our results show that there was a strong decline in the number of births in some of the cities analysed, and that most of the reductions occurred among women around the age of 30 years old. It appears that because of the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, women have been postponing or foregoing the realisation of their fertility intentions, which may have led to a temporary baby bust in some cities of Brazil. However, the COVID-19 pandemic was not found to be associated with faster reductions in births in all Brazilian cities. Indeed, in the cities of Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte, the decreasing trend in birth counts appears to have slowed down, or even reversed.
subject: Data & Trends
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creator: Everton Emanuel Campos de Lima
creator: Camila Ferreira Soares
creator: José Henrique Costa Monteiro da Silva
rights: Copyright (c) 2022 Everton Emanuel Campos de Lima, Camila Ferreira Soares, José Henrique Costa Monteiro da Silva https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2022-03-16
publication date: 2022-03-16
starting page: 437
ending page: 457

COVID-19 and relationship quality: Emotional, paid work and organizational spheres.
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description: This study contributes to the growing literature on the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic for family functioning, with a special focus on couples’ relationship quality. We advance an analytical model that emphasizes the role of three main stressors of relationship quality during the pandemic: namely, emotional, paid work-related and organizational stressors. To outline such an approach, we analyze whether the onset of the pandemic – and the home confinement that followed – has reduced relationship quality in France, Italy and Spain using survey data collected in April 2020. We show that relationship quality decreased for a non-negligible part of the population, and that this result was driven mostly by the emotional stressor. These negative effects on relationship quality appeared to be relatively stable across genders, different levels of network support and countries; which suggests that the severity of the lockdown measures outweighed the traditional moderating factors usually accounted for in family research.
subject: Research Articles
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creator: Daniela Bellani
creator: Daniele Vignoli
rights: Copyright (c) 2022 Daniela Bellani, Daniele Vignoli https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2022-03-16
publication date: 2022-03-16
starting page: 195
ending page: 221

Excess mortality and COVID-19 in Sweden in 2020: A demographic account
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description: In this study, we provide an account of mortality levels in Sweden in 2020, focusing on both excess mortality and mortality due to COVID-19 deaths. We present various measures of life expectancy for women and men based on age-specific death rates in 2020. Our measures of excess mortality are based on comparisons with benchmarks derived from a previous mortality forecast for 2020 by Statistics Sweden and observed average mortality rates during 2017–2019. We present data on regional and seasonal variation in excess mortality, as well as estimates of Years of Potential Life Lost due to COVID-19. We decompose excess mortality in 2020 into excess mortality due to COVID-19 and excess mortality attributable to other causes. We also provide some estimates on the impact of excess mortality in 2020 on the remaining life expectancy for different cohorts of women and men in Sweden. We demonstrate that the impact of COVID-19 mortality was concentrated at higher ages, and among men in particular. Conversely, some younger age groups experienced negative excess mortality. The mortality changes during 2020 caused life expectancy levels to revert back to those observed in 2018 for women and in 2017 for men.
subject: Research Articles
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creator: Martin Kolk
creator: Sven Drefahl
creator: Matthew Wallace
creator: Gunnar Andersson
rights: Copyright (c) 2023 Martin Kolk, Sven Drefahl, Matthew Wallace, Gunnar Andersson https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2022-01-27
publication date: 2022-01-27
starting page: 317
ending page: 348

Narratives of the future and fertility decision-making in uncertain times. An application to the COVID-19 pandemic
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description: The sociological and demographic literatures have widely demonstrated that fertility decisions are shaped by individuals’ previous life experiences and socioeconomic status – i.e., the “shadow of the past.” However, rising uncertainty in contemporary societies necessitates an analytical framework that acknowledges the influence of the future in the fertility decision-making process. Based on the Narrative Framework, we argue that personal narratives of the future, and their constitutive elements of expectations and imaginaries – i.e., the “shadow of the future” – represent crucial drivers of fertility intentions under conditions of uncertainty. Our arguments are tested empirically by exploiting the exogenous uncertainty shock provided by the COVID-19 pandemic, and unique data we collected during the Italian lockdown. Results suggest that, because of COVID-induced uncertainty, subjective perceptions and personal narratives of the future – also shaped by media “shared narratives” – gained the upper hand over the shadow of the past in influencing fertility intentions. In addition, we provide evidence of a causal impact of shared narratives of the future on fertility intentions through an online experiment simulating a “real” exposure of the respondents to a new media narrative on the expected length of the emergency.
subject: Research Articles
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creator: Raffaele Guetto
creator: Giacomo Bazzani
creator: Daniele Vignoli
rights: Copyright (c) 2022 Guetto Raffaele, Giacomo Bazzani, Vignoli Daniele https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2022-02-15
publication date: 2022-02-15
starting page: 223
ending page: 260

https://www.vypr.vlg.oeaw.ac.at/index.php/vypr/article/view/233
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title: Pitfalls and solutions in case fatality risk estimation – A multi-country analysis on the effects of demographics, surveillance, time lags between case reports and deaths and healthcare system capacity on COVID-19 CFR estimates
description: Across European countries, there have been large differences in COVID-19 case fatality risk (CFR) estimates, and considerable variation in these estimates over time. CFR estimates vary depending on both the method used for estimation and country-specific characteristics. While crude methods simply use cumulative total numbers of cases and deaths, the CFR can be influenced by the demographic characteristics of the cases, the case detection rates, the time lags between the reporting of infections and deaths and infrastructure characteristics, such as healthcare capacities. We use publicly available weekly data for 11 European countries on the COVID-19 case and death numbers by age group for the year 2020. Moreover, we use data on national weekly test rates to adjust the case numbers, and to investigate the effects of different time lags between the reporting of cases and deaths on the estimation of CFRs. Finally, we describe the association between case fatality rates and the demand for hospital and intensive care unit beds for COVID-19 cases, while taking into account national bed capacities. The crude CFR estimates differ considerably across the investigated countries. In the crude international CFR time series, the differences are smaller when adjusting for the demographics of the cases. Differences in testing policies significantly affect the CFR estimates as well. However, the question of precisely how these testing procedures should be adjusted requires further investigation. Lag adjustments of CFRs do not lead to improvements in estimates of COVID-19 CFRs, and no connection between hospital capacities and CFRs can be found for the countries included in our study.
subject: Research Articles
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creator: Patrizio Vanella
creator: Christian Wiessner
creator: Anja Holz
creator: Gérard Krause
creator: Annika Möhl
creator: Sarah Wiegel
creator: Berit Lange
creator: Heiko Becher
rights: Copyright (c) 2022 Tito, Christian Wiessner, Anja Holz, Gérard Krause, Annika Möhl, Sarah Wiegel, Berit Lange, Heiko Becher https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2022-02-15
publication date: 2022-02-15
starting page: 167
ending page: 193

Are homicides and robberies associated with mortality due to COVID-19? Lessons from Urban Mexico
type: item
description: Studies on the symbiosis of crime and COVID-19 have analyzed governmentmandated lockdown effects. However, it is unknown to what extent previous crime rates determined a larger and more mortal spread of the pandemic. We study how homicides and robberies in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 are associated with 2020 mortality rates due to COVID-19 in urban municipalities in Mexico. Considering sex differentials in health, exposure to the virus and experiences of violence, we study whether gender differences in mortality exist in 2020. Using publicly available data on deaths due to COVID-19 provided by the Mexican Secretariat of Health, along with a series of indicators to characterize local pre-pandemic conditions of urban municipalities, we estimate a series of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models on age-standardized crude death rates (ASCDR) by sex. Findings show that homicides—a proxy for criminal violence that might encourage people to stay home—show significant negative associations with mortality rates. Comparatively, robberies—a proxy of local violence and safety—were positively associated with mortality rates for both sexes. Sex differences in the determinants of ASCDR are discussed.
subject: Research Articles
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creator: Claudia Masferrer
creator: Oscar Rodriguez Chávez
rights: Copyright (c) 2022 Claudia Masferrer, Oscar Rodriguez Chávez https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2022-01-26
publication date: 2022-01-26
starting page: 367
ending page: 390

COVID-19 in Hong Kong: Policies and community actions mitigate the effects of age structure and population density
type: item
description: Despite the various socio-demographic vulnerabilities of Hong Kong to the COVID-19 pandemic, the city has successfully managed four waves of local outbreaks, as shown by its comparatively low numbers of confirmed cases and deaths. In this paper, we identify and differentiate the unique characteristics of Hong Kong’s COVID-19 outbreaks from those of other territories, and analyse the factors that shaped these characteristics. In particular, we examine four local demographic factors – older age structure, high population density, poor housing conditions and a large migrant population – which, according to current scientific evidence, would likely indicate that the city faces a relatively high risk of the significant spread of COVID-19. We analyse and explain how multiple policies related to border controls, social distancing, testing and tracing, partial lockdowns and housing management, as well as sustained community actions, helped to mitigate the effects of these significant disadvantages.
subject: Data & Trends
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creator: Zilin Li
creator: Stuart Gietel-Basten
creator: Christian Joy Pattawi Cruz
creator: Rachel Ganly
rights: Copyright (c) 2022 Zilin Li, Stuart Gietel-Basten, Christian Joy Pattawi Cruz, Rachel Ganly https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2022-01-18
publication date: 2022-01-18
starting page: 415
ending page: 435

The mathematics of the reproduction number R for Covid-19: A primer for demographers
type: item
description: The reproduction number R is a key indicator used to monitor the dynamics of Covid-19 and to assess the effects of infection control strategies that frequently have high social and economic costs. Despite having an analog in demography’s “net reproduction rate” that has been routinely computed for a century, demographers may not be familiar with the concept and measurement of R in the context of Covid-19. This article is intended to be a primer for understanding and estimating R in demography. We show that R can be estimated as a ratio between the numbers of new cases today divided by the weighted average of cases in previous days. We present two alternative derivations for these weights based on how risks have changed over time: constant vs. exponential decay. We then provide estimates of these weights, and demonstrate their use in calculating R to trace the course of the first pandemic year in 53 countries.
subject: Research Articles
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creator: Luis Rosero-Bixby
creator: Tim Miller
rights: Copyright (c) 2023 Luis Rosero-Bixby, Tim Miller https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2021-12-15
publication date: 2021-12-15
starting page: 143
ending page: 166

Marital fertility decline and death of children in the Sardinian longevity Blue Zone
type: item
description: Several authors reported the late fertility transition in Sardinia that started in the 1950’s within the first demographic transition. This contribution aims to investigate the association between the decrease of infant and child mortality and the decline in marital fertility. Individual data are involved in a classical family reconstruction starting from mid XIX century for the population of two Sardinian villages characterized by their higher level of longevity, Villagrande Strisailli and Seulo. Our results reveal that this population had very few signs of fertility decline prior 1920 and even prior 1950. From then, the fall of fertility is evident. As far as infant and child mortality is concerned, it decreased slightly between the two World Wars and strongly only after the second. The question arises if these two transitions are associated or not and, if so, which one started the first whereas the other might be associated to the first. Our results show that the association between the two declines is synchronic with a sharper decrease starting in the ‘50s. Nevertheless, this association cannot be explained only by a causal relationship based on changes in demographic behaviours. Strong socio-economic changes initiated between the two World Wars and acting more largely in the ‘50s might be the causes of both declines in a traditional society in full transformation towards a modern world.
subject: Research Articles
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creator: Michel Poulain
rights: Copyright (c) 2021 Vienna Yearbook of Population Research https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2020-09-10
publication date: 2020-09-10
starting page: 215
ending page: 236

Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women's educational and migrant characteristics
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description: Building on the well-established knowledge on fertility differentials by educationand nativity/migration status, we employ microsimulation modelling to demonstratethe effect of accounting for such differences in population projections. We considerfertility differentials by educational attainment, enrolment in full-time education,region of birth, age at immigration, and duration of stay in the host country, whichwe introduce step-wise into the microsimulation model for the EU28. Results onprojected TFRs and births by 2060 illustrate the importance of accounting forseveral sources of population heterogeneity. In the context of future educationalexpansion, modelling education differentials for students and for women withcompleted education is needed to capture the postponement effect of education onchildbearing. Future migration assumptions that include migrant fertility differen-tials lead to widely varying projected numbers of future births. At fixed fertilitydifferentials and a fixed composition of immigrant flows, the net effect of immigrantfertility on the overall TFR in the EU28 is projected to increase from the estimated0.12 in 2015–2019 to 0.17 in 2055–59 in the scenario with baseline migration, andto 0.25 in 2055–59 in the scenario with doubled migration.
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creator: Michaela Potancokova
creator: Guillaume Marois
rights: Copyright (c) 2020 Vienna Yearbook of Population Research https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2020-08-04
publication date: 2020-08-04
starting page: 141
ending page: 166

Laggards in the global fertility transition
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description: Between the early 1950s and the present, the global fertility transition has been nearly universal in the developing world. However, as of 2017, two countries out of the 190 countries for which the United Nations provides fertility estimates had not yet met the conventional criterion for establishing the onset of the fertility transition (a decline of at least 10 per cent from peak fertility), and another five countries did so only very recently. These are the laggards in the global fertility transition. The countries are all in sub-Saharan Africa: Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, The Gambia, Mali, Niger, and Somalia. This paper first reviews the fertility history of these seven countries, and subsequently provides data on the timing and pace of the global fertility transition in the four major developing regions: Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. It then explores potential reasons for the slow emergence of fertility decline in each country. The paper concludes with a discussion of each country’s prospects for fertility decline, which generally are weaker than those in the projections of the United Nations.
subject: Research Articles
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creator: David Shapiro
creator: Andrew Hinde
rights: Copyright (c) 2020 Vienna Yearbook of Population Research https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2020-07-09
publication date: 2020-07-09
starting page: 123
ending page: 140

Future Orientation and Fertility: Cross-national Evidence using Google Search
type: item
description: Using digital traces to investigate demographic behaviours, I leverage in this paperaggregated web search data to develop a Future Orientation Index for 200 countriesand territories across the world. This index is expressed as the ratio of Googlesearch volumes for ‘next year’ (e.g., 2021) to search volumes for ‘current year’ (e.g.,2020), adjusted for country-level internet penetration rates. I show that countrieswith lower levels of future orientation also have higher levels of fertility. Fertilityrates decrease quickly as future orientation levels increase; but at the highest levelsof future orientation, this correlation flattens out. Theoretically, I reconstruct therole that varying degrees of future orientation might play in fertility decisions byincorporating advances in behavioural economics into a traditional quantity-qualityframework`a la Becker.
subject: Research Articles
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creator: Nicolò Cavalli
rights: Copyright (c) 2020 Vienna Yearbook of Population Research https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2020-12-29
publication date: 2020-12-29
starting page: 237
ending page: 263

Decomposing changes in first birth trends: Quantum, timing, or variance
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description: In high-income countries, women and men born since the 1940s have delayed the birth of their first child, more of them have remained childless, and the timing of the first birth has become more diverse in these cohorts. The interaction between these three trends makes the research on first birth patterns more complex. This study has two main aims: (1) we introduce an alternative index, Expected Years Without Children (EYWC), to quantify changes in first birth behaviour; and (2) we decompose the changes in EYWC over time into three effects: remaining permanently childless, postponing the first birth, and the expansion of the standard deviation of the mean age at first birth. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, EYWC is calculated to illustrate time trends among women born in the 1910s–1960s in eight countries with longer series of data on cohort first birth trends: Canada, the Czech Republic, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States. Our decomposition shows that the changes in EYWC are mainly attributable to postponement in North America and northern Europe, whereas these changes are largely due to increasing shares of women remaining childless in Japan and Portugal.
subject: Research Articles
  topic: section
creator: Ryohei Mogi
rights: Copyright (c) 2020 Vienna Yearbook of Population Research https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2020-07-22
publication date: 2020-07-22
starting page: 167
ending page: 184

What factors support the early age patterns of fertility in a developing country: the case of Kyrgyzstan
type: item
description: We analyse the socio-economic and cultural factors that influence the timing of thefirst birth in Kyrgyzstan. As in several other developing countries in Central Asia,no trend towards the postponement of fertility has been observed in Kyrgyzstan.This contrasts not only with the current trend towards later parenthood that hasbeen documented in highly developed countries, but with an incipient trend towardsa delay in the timing of the first birth that has been reported in many developingcountries. Our study is based on the Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey – 2014(MICS2014), with complementary data drawn from the Demography and HealthSurvey – 2012 (DHS2012). Our analysis of the first union and of the first birth ina union for cohorts of women born between 1965 and 1998 showed that the ratesof union formation and motherhood have increased among the younger cohorts. Wealso found that a woman’s education, labour market experience, and the genderrelations in her family influenced her likelihood of transitioning to a first unionand to motherhood. In addition, we uncovered significant differences in the timingof motherhood and union formation between women of different ethnicities, andlooked at the factors that may have contributed to these differences. The factors thatsupport a stable age pattern of fertility in Kyrgyzstan are of interest when conductingbroader comparative research on fertility timing in developing countries, as thesefactors may help explain the current diversity in these patterns.
subject: Research Articles
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creator: Konstantin Kazenin
creator: Kozlov Vladimir
rights: Copyright (c) 2020 Vienna Yearbook of Population Research https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2020-08-11
publication date: 2020-08-11
starting page: 185
ending page: 213

Assessing excess mortality in Vienna and Austria after the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic
type: item
description: In Austria, the first confirmed COVID-19 death occurred in early March 2020. Since then, the question as to whether and, if so, to what extent the COVID-19 pandemic has increased overall mortality has been raised in the public and academic discourse. In an effort to answer this question, Statistics Vienna (City of Vienna, Department for Economic Affairs, Labour and Statistics) has evaluated the weekly mortality trends in Vienna, and compared them to the trends in other Austrian provinces. For our analysis, we draw on data from Statistics Austria and the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), which are published along with data on the actual and the expected weekly numbers of deaths via the Vienna Mortality Monitoring website. Based on the definition of excess mortality as the actual number of reported deaths from all causes minus the expected number of deaths, we calculate the weekly prediction intervals of the expected number of deaths for two age groups (0 to 64 years and 65 years and older). The temporal scope of the analysis covers not only the current COVID-19 pandemic, but also previous flu seasons and summer heat waves. The results show the actual weekly numbers of deaths and the corresponding prediction intervals for Vienna and the other Austrian provinces since 2007. Our analysis underlines the importance of comparing time series of COVID-19-related excess deaths at the sub-national level in order to highlight within-country heterogeneities.
subject: Data & Trends
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creator: Ramon Bauer
creator: Markus Speringer
creator: Peter Frühwirt
creator: Roman Seidl
creator: Franz Trautinger
rights: Copyright (c) 2023 Ramon Bauer, Markus Speringer, Peter Frühwirt, Roman Seidl, Franz Trautinger https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2022-01-14
publication date: 2022-01-14
starting page: 393
ending page: 414

Assessing the generational impact of COVID-19 using National Transfer Accounts (NTAs)
type: item
description: An important aspect of the current COVID-19 crisis is that not all age groups are equally affected by the pandemic. To account for the generational impact of COVID-19, a dynamic overlapping generations model with realistic demography, human capital and NTAs is constructed. The COVID-19 crisis is modelled through two unexpected and temporary negative shocks: an economic shock that reduces labour income, and a demographic shock that increases the mortality hazard rates of those infected. The model is applied to 12 countries for which full NTA data are available. Results are presented for two extreme fiscal policies: one in which governments compensate workers for 0% (without fiscal support) of their total labour income losses due to the pandemic, and another in which governments compensate workers for 100% (with fiscal support) of these losses. In addition, I analyse the impact of these policies on public debt. The results show that COVID-19 is affecting the financial situations of people aged 25 to 64 and their children more than those of older people. By compensating workers for their income losses, the economic impact of COVID-19 has been more evenly distributed across cohorts, reducing the burden on people aged zero to 64, and increasing the burden on people aged 65 and older. Moreover, the simulation results show that a 1% decline in labour income leads to an average increase in the debt-to-total labour income ratio of between 1.2% (without fiscal policy) and 1.6% (with fiscal policy).
subject: Research Articles
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creator: Miguel Sanchez Romero
rights: Copyright (c) 2023 Miguel Sanchez Romero https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2022-01-26
publication date: 2022-01-26
starting page: 107
ending page: 141

Understanding Women’s Well-being in Turkey: Determinants of Women’s Satisfaction with Life
type: item
description: The results of empirical studies focusing on gender differences in subjective wellbeing based on either national or comparative international data are inconclusive. In Turkey, where levels of gender inequality are high, women tend to report higher levels of life satisfaction than men. This study investigates the relationship between factors related to women’s empowerment and life satisfaction for both ever-married and never-married women using the 2018 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS), which collected data on life satisfaction for the first time in a TDHS series. The results show that in addition to their material resources and living environment, factors related to women’s agency – i.e., education and participation in decisionmaking – are associated with women’s levels of life satisfaction.
subject: Research Articles
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creator: Dilek Yildiz
creator: Hilal Arslan
creator: Alanur Cavlin
rights: Copyright (c) 2023 Dilek Yildiz, Hilal Arslan, Alanur Cavlin https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2021-08-25
publication date: 2021-08-25
starting page: 255
ending page: 291

Years of Good Life: An illustration of a new well-being indicator using data for Thailand
type: item
description: While Thailand has achieved high levels of economic growth in recent decades, poverty at the local level has been increasing. Indicators of human development at the national level often mask the differences in well-being across communities. When responding to the need for sustainable development research, the heterogeneity of a population should be emphasised to ensure that no one is left behind. The Years of Good Life (YoGL) is a well-being indicator that demonstrates the similarities and differences between subpopulations in a given sociocultural context over time. The data used in this analysis were collected from Chiang Rai and Kalasin, which are provinces located in regions of Thailand with high poverty rates. Our main results indicate that the remaining years of good life (free from physical and cognitive limitations, out of poverty and satisfied with life) at age 20 among the sample population were 26 years for women and 28 years for men. The results varied depending on the indicators applied in each dimension of YoGL. Our analysis of the YoGL constituents indicated that cognitive functioning was the dimension that decreased the years of good life the most in the main specification. This study demonstrates the applicability of the YoGL methodology in investigating the wellbeing of
subject: Data & Trends
  topic: section
creator: Anna Dimitrova
creator: Thananon Buathong
rights: Copyright (c) 2023 Anna Dimitrova, Thananon Buathong https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2021-08-05
publication date: 2021-08-05
starting page: 547
ending page: 583

Is educational wellbeing associated with grade repetition and school dropout rates among Indian students? Evidence from a panel study
type: item
description: Despite the Indian government’s continuing efforts to encourage children to attend school, levels of educational wellbeing among some groups of children during their elementary schooling remain low. High school dropout and grade repetition rates are among the negative and deleterious outcomes of poor educational wellbeing in children that are rarely discussed as policy issues. Using the panel dataset of the India Human Development Survey (IHDS) conducted in 2005 and 2012, this study explores the effects of educational wellbeing on children’s later educational outcomes, as measured by their school dropout and grade repetition rates. Variation in the educational outcomes of children across states was also examined. The results show that the children whose educational wellbeing index was below average during their elementary schooling were more likely to drop out of school or repeat a grade in early adolescence. For policymakers, this study highlights that the experiences of children during their elementary schooling merit more attention.
subject: Research Articles
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creator: Rashmi Rashmi
creator: Ronak Paul
rights: Copyright (c) 2023 Vienna Yearbook of Population Research https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2021-08-10
publication date: 2021-08-10
starting page: 503
ending page: 543

Effects of income inequality on COVID-19 infections and deaths during the first wave of the pandemic: Evidence from European countries
type: item
description: Evidence from research on infectious diseases suggests that income inequality is related to higher rates of infection and death in disadvantaged population groups. Our objective is to examine whether there was an association between income inequality and the numbers of cases and deaths during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in European countries. We determined the duration of the first wave by first smoothing the number of daily cases, and then using a LOESS regression to fit the smoothed trend. Next, we estimated quasi-Poisson regressions. Results from the bivariate models suggest there was a moderate positive association between the Gini index values and the cumulated number of infections and deaths during the first wave, although the statistical significance of this association disappeared when controls were included. Results from multivariate models suggest that higher numbers of infections and deaths from COVID-19 were associated with countries having more essential workers, larger elderly populations and lower health carecapacities.
subject: Research Articles
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creator: David Sánchez Páez
rights: Copyright (c) 2023 David Sánchez Páez https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2021-08-03
publication date: 2021-08-03
starting page: 85
ending page: 106

Mortality Evolution in Algeria: What we can learn about data quality
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description: Mortality in Algeria has declined significantly since the country declared its independence in 1962. This trend has been accompanied by improvements in data quality and changes in estimation methodology, both of which are scarcely documented, and may distort the natural evolution of mortality as reported in official statistics. In this paper, our aim is to detect these methodological and data quality changes by means of the visual inspection of mortality surfaces, which represent the evolution of mortality rates, mortality improvement rates and the male-female mortality ratio over age and time. Data quality problems are clearly visible during the 1977–1982 period. The quality of mortality data has improved after 1983, and even further since the population census of 1998, which coincided with the end of the civil war. Additional inexplicable patterns have also been detected, such as a changing mortality age pattern during the period before 1983, and a changing pattern of excess female mortality at reproductive ages, which suddenly appears in 1983 and disappears in 1992.
subject: Research Articles
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creator: Farid FLICI
creator: Nacer-Eddine Hammouda
rights: Copyright (c) 2023 Vienna Yearbook of Population Research https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2021-08-12
publication date: 2021-08-12
starting page: 169
ending page: 190

Singles in the City: Happily ever after?
type: item
description: More people than ever are living in cities, and in these cities, more and more people are living alone. Using the example of Vienna, this paper investigates the subjective well-being of single households in the city. Previous research has identified positive and negative aspects of living alone (e.g., increased freedom vs. missing social embeddedness). We compare single households with other household types using data from the Viennese Quality of Life Survey (1995–2018). In our analysis, we consider overall life satisfaction as well as selected dimensions of subjective wellbeing (i.e., housing, financial situation, main activity, family, social contacts, leisure time). Our findings show that the subjective well-being of single households in Vienna is high and quite stable over time. While single households are found to have lower life satisfaction than two-adult households, this result is mainly explained by singles reporting lower satisfaction with family life. Compared to households with children, singles are more satisfied with their financial situation, leisure time and housing, which helps to offset the negative consequences of missing family ties (in particular with regard to single parents).
subject: Research Articles
  topic: section
creator: Bernhard Riederer
creator: Nina-Sophie Fritsch
creator: Lena Seewann
rights: Copyright (c) 2023 Bernhard Riederer, Nina-Sophie Fritsch , Lena Seewann https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2021-06-30
publication date: 2021-06-30
starting page: 319
ending page: 353

Fathers’ and mothers’ subjective wellbeing in childcare time: the role of multitasking
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description: We use micro data from the latest edition of the Italian Time Use Survey (2013-2014) and analyze 29,742 childcare episodes to measure gender differences in parents’ subjective wellbeing in childcare time and how these differences are affected by the presence of domestic work as a parallel activity (i.e. multitasking). Based on episodes’ enjoyment-scores, we build a dichotomous indicator of unpleasantness according to which an episode is classified as unpleasant for the respondent (U-index=1) if its enjoyment-score is equal or below to the lowest 25th percentile of the scores recorded for the corresponding activity. Our results highlight the existence of statistically significant gender differences in the U-index during overall childcare time, with mothers showing higher likelihood to experiment an unpleasant episode than fathers. Multitasking significantly reduces the wellbeing of both parents when they play with their children.
subject: Research Articles
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creator: Marina Zannella
creator: Alessandra De Rose
rights: Copyright (c) 2023 Vienna Yearbook of Population Research https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
date: 2021-06-09
publication date: 2021-06-09
starting page: 355
ending page: 382